This chart uses Google Trends data to provide an outlook on the competitive 2024 U.S. presidential race. Weighted data from key categories like news, politics, election campaigns, and public polling offer insights into public interest. The results show predicted vote shares in critical swing states such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, and others, where the margins between Trump and Harris remain narrow, highlighting the election’s competitiveness.
Google Trends Data Download: Search data from categories such as News, News/Politics, News/Politics/Election Campaigns, and News/Politics/Public Polls was utilized. Category Weighting: Weights were applied as follows—News 0.01, News/Politics 0.04, News/Politics/Election Campaigns 0.2, News/Politics/Public Polls 0.75—giving higher importance to data with a likely impact on election outcomes. Minimum Threshold Application: A minimum value of 10 was applied for cases where search volume was 0, ensuring proportionality even in low-interest cases. Recent Data Weighting: Averages from the past 15 days were calculated, with weights applied to the last 5 days as follows: 1.0 for today, 0.8 for yesterday, 0.6 for two days ago, 0.4 for three days ago, and 0.2 for four days ago, to reflect recent changes in interest.
The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is shaping up to be a closely contested race, with candidates Trump and Harris competing intensely across key swing states. Leveraging Google Trends data, this analysis aims to capture real-time public interest shifts as a proxy for electoral outcomes, especially in states where the election results are projected to hinge on small margins.
Pennsylvania's data suggests a razor-thin margin, with Trump at 50.7% and Harris closely trailing at 49.3%. Given Pennsylvania’s history as a bellwether in recent elections, this near-even split signals an intense contest where every percentage point could alter the outcome.
In North Carolina, Trump leads with 50.9% compared to Harris’s 49.1%. Although North Carolina has leaned conservative in past elections, recent demographic shifts and urban growth are gradually transforming the state’s political landscape. This slim lead implies potential volatility, contingent on turnout and late-breaking voter decisions.
Trump currently holds a slight edge in Michigan, with 50.4% over Harris’s 49.6%. Given the significance of Michigan in recent elections, this result underscores the critical importance of both candidates’ efforts in the Midwest. Economic factors, especially manufacturing-related concerns, remain central to Michigan’s electorate, making this a pivotal state.
Georgia’s projection indicates a 50.8% preference for Trump over 49.2% for Harris, reflecting the state’s shifting demographics. With recent elections showing increased Democratic support in Georgia’s urban and suburban regions, these projections reveal a competitive race with potential fluctuations driven by last-minute voter shifts.
Trump holds 51.2% in Arizona, compared to Harris’s 48.8%. Arizona has been a critical battleground with close margins in recent elections. Key issues for Arizona voters include immigration policy and water rights, both influencing voter sentiment significantly.
In Wisconsin, Trump has a slim lead at 51.2% versus Harris’s 48.8%. As a state with a history of narrowly decided results, Wisconsin’s voter behavior remains unpredictable. Rural and suburban areas often lean Republican, while urban centers favor Democrats, making turnout and mobilization efforts essential for both candidates.
Nevada shows a 51.6% preference for Trump and 48.4% for Harris. With Nevada’s substantial Hispanic population, economic issues, including employment and health care, could shape voter sentiment. Nevada’s results remain subject to change as the campaign progresses, particularly given the weight of late-deciding voters.
Each state in this projection has unique issues influencing voter sentiment, while trends remain highly dynamic. The use of Google Trends data, weighted by relevance to political themes and recent fluctuations, provides valuable insight into real-time public interest across these swing states. This approach highlights how electoral outcomes may hinge on evolving interests and preferences in the days leading up to the election.
Data Attribution